R3.6 trillion to end load-shedding for good

By eKayNews | Energy & Economy

R3.6 trillion to end load-shedding for good — this is the central finding of a landmark energy transition study conducted by the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), National Planning Commission (NPC), and the National Treasury’s SA-TIED programme. The research provides the most comprehensive roadmap yet for renewable energy South Africa investment and offers a strategic alternative to the government’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2025).

Load-shedding has shaped the daily reality of South Africans for more than a decade. Homes, schools, businesses and healthcare facilities have endured persistent power outages that reduced service reliability, slowed economic growth, and weakened investor confidence. The new study argues that South Africa stands at a turning point — where decisive investment can end the electricity crisis permanently.

A New Direction in South Africa’s Power Future

The central purpose of the study is clear: secure reliable electricity at the lowest cost and support the country’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The research models three distinct future energy pathways:

Across all models, the data is unambiguous: Scenario A, the Green Industrialisation pathway, is both financially cheapest and most aligned with global climate targets.

Why this matters

The findings directly support DBSA energy transition targets and demonstrate that economic efficiency and climate responsibility can work together — rather than in opposition.

Ending Load-Shedding: What Must Change

Today, about 86% of households have access to electricity, but system reliability remains weak. The average energy availability factor in 2024 was just 59.8%, and renewables produced less than 10% of national electricity.

To end load-shedding permanently, the study recommends:

• Rapid expansion of solar and wind power

• Large-scale battery storage deployment

• Construction of new 765 kV transmission corridors

• Reduction and retrofitting of ageing coal plants

• Strengthening private-sector participation in power generation

The scale is historic

To reach the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals and universal energy access, South Africa must undertake the largest energy infrastructure expansion in its history.

What R3.6 Trillion Pays For

The projected investment of R3.6 trillion to R4.2 trillion (adjusted to 2024 real terms) will be used over 25 years from 2025 to 2050. Notably:

• Generation infrastructure = ~90% of total cost

• Grid expansion & upgrades = up to 11% of cost

• Storage and flexible gas = support renewable reliability

While upfront capital is significant, the analysis shows that early renewable build-out drives cost reductions over time, whereas delaying transition increases long-term spending.

Investment Breakdown under Scenario A (Green Industrialisation)

Unlike fossil-fuel-heavy approaches, Scenario A reduces lifetime fuel and maintenance costs, stabilising tariffs in the long run.

Why Private Investment is Critical

Public funds alone cannot achieve the energy transition.

Banks, pension funds, DFIs and energy developers confirm that capital exists for renewables — but uncertainty in regulation, procurement processes and grid access is limiting project rollout.

Key challenges include:

• Delays in IRP updates

• Eskom backlog in grid connection approvals

• Inconsistent procurement cycles

• Unclear carbon tax policy

• Limited frameworks for private grid investment

South Africa’s challenge is not money — it is coordination.

Policy Reform: The Deciding Factor

The study calls for structural reforms to:

• Enforce consistent long-term planning

• Strengthen independent regulation

• Accelerate permitting and licensing timelines

• Guarantee grid access for private producers

• Expand the South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM)

Countries such as Chile and India demonstrate that stable policy and independent oversight accelerate renewable energy transitions and reduce investor risk. South Africa, the report argues, must follow similar principles.

Social and Economic Transformation

Transitioning to a renewable-driven energy system will reshape South Africa’s economy:

• Thousands of new jobs in solar, wind and manufacturing

• Localisation opportunities for green technology supply chains

• Reduced dependence on imported coal and diesel

• Cleaner air and improved public health

However, coal-dependent regions like Mpumalanga will require just transition support — including worker reskilling, community reinvestment, and targeted industrial diversification.

The Message is Clear: Act Now

The final takeaway of the DBSA energy transition study is urgent:

Delaying the transition will cost more than implementing it quickly.

Ending load-shedding is possible. It is affordable. It is economically strategic.
But progress depends on implementation, not more debate.

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Conclusion

South Africa has the technology, financing capacity and strategic frameworks needed to end the electricity crisis and build a resilient, renewable-powered future. The R3.6 trillion to end load-shedding for good plan represents not just an energy solution — but a nation-building opportunity.

If acted on decisively, South Africa could secure universal electricity access, meet climate targets, stimulate new industries, and become a continental leader in green industrialisation.

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