Nail in the coffin for load shedding in South Africa
Nail in the coffin for load shedding in South Africa is becoming more than just a hopeful phrase as Eskom moves closer to stabilizing the country’s electricity grid. After years of national frustration, blackouts, and interrupted growth, the utility has unveiled its Summer Outlook 2025, signaling a major turning point. For the first time in years, South Africans can look forward to a summer free from load shedding.
Eskom’s Summer Outlook 2025: A new era for electricity supply
The announcement follows a relatively stable winter period from 1 April to 31 August 2025, where only 26 hours of load shedding were recorded, spread across four evenings. This represented a 97% electricity supply success rate, aligning with Eskom’s Winter Outlook.
Building on this success, Eskom’s Summer Outlook for 1 September 2025 to 31 March 2026 forecasts no load shedding at all. Compared to the previous summer of 2024/25, which saw 13 days of load shedding due to maintenance delays, this is a significant turnaround. Eskom attributes the improvement to adding approximately 4,000MW of extra capacity.
These interventions, combined with structural improvements in Eskom’s generation fleet, have added more nails to the coffin of load shedding in South Africa.
Restored capacity and reduced costs
Since 2023, Eskom has restored a total of 7,800MW of capacity through long-term outage recoveries and new builds. Key milestones include:
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Medupi Unit 4 and Kusile Unit 6, adding 1,400MW in 2025.
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A reduction of 1,900MW in peak planned maintenance due to better scheduling.
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A rise in the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) from 55% in FY2023 to 60.6% in FY2025.
Financially, Eskom has reduced its diesel generator expenditure from R33 billion in FY2024 to just R17 billion in FY2025. This significant cost saving reflects improved grid reliability and a reduction in reliance on emergency backup.
Further boosts are expected in September 2025, when Koeberg Unit 1 returns to service, adding another 930MW of capacity.
Load reduction challenges: the next hurdle
While load shedding may be nearing its end, South Africans must now contend with load reduction challenges. Unlike scheduled national outages, load reduction occurs locally in areas with overloaded systems, often due to illegal connections.
Load reduction is particularly common in communities where electricity theft and infrastructure strain make it impossible for Eskom to sustain supply without interruptions.
Eskom CEO Dan Marokane emphasized that while the national grid is more stable, the focus must shift to localized issues. Eskom aims to cut load reduction incidents by 20% by March 2026, with the long-term plan to eliminate the practice within two years.
Tackling electricity theft and illegal connections
One of the main drivers of load reduction is electricity theft. Eskom has announced bold plans to remove over 600,000 illegal connections, while simultaneously deploying 7.2 million smart meters. To date, around 880,000 smart meters have been installed, helping to manage demand and curb theft.
In addition, Eskom plans to expand network upgrades and register more households for free basic electricity. This approach reduces the need for illegal connections while supporting vulnerable communities.
Energy Availability Factor: steady improvement
The Energy Availability Factor continues to be a critical metric. By August 2025, Eskom achieved a 66% EAF, with a 10% year-on-year improvement. Notably, 38 generating units are operating above 80% availability, a remarkable feat considering Eskom’s track record in recent years.
This performance indicates that the utility is gradually overcoming years of poor maintenance and mismanagement, marking progress toward a sustainable and reliable electricity supply.
Diesel use and cost savings
Eskom’s reduced reliance on diesel has also become a cornerstone of its strategy. Diesel usage dropped from 16.02% load factor in April 2025 to just 1.84% in August. This is well below the 6% limit set by Nersa, the energy regulator.
By cutting diesel dependency, Eskom not only saves billions of rands but also reduces emissions and pressure on emergency supply infrastructure.
From national crisis to local solutions
The phrase “nail in the coffin for load shedding in South Africa” may sound definitive, but Eskom acknowledges that challenges remain. The national energy crisis is no longer about large-scale outages; instead, it has become localized in nature.
Load rotation and reductions remain a reality for some communities. Tackling this requires collaboration between Eskom, municipalities, law enforcement, and citizens themselves. A multilateral approach is the only way to achieve Eskom’s ambitious two-year goal of ending load reduction.
What this means for South Africans
For ordinary South Africans, the progress is both encouraging and symbolic. For years, load shedding has been a source of economic frustration, business disruptions, and household stress. The promise of an end to load shedding, coupled with Eskom’s detailed Summer Outlook 2025, provides a rare sense of optimism.
If Eskom can follow through on its commitments, households, industries, and investors may finally regain confidence in the stability of the electricity grid.
Looking ahead
The end of load shedding would mark a historic moment for South Africa, but the country must not underestimate the load reduction challenges still at play. Electricity theft, illegal connections, and localized infrastructure strain must be resolved through proactive measures.
Eskom’s strategy—backed by smart meters, stronger enforcement, and expanded free basic electricity—shows a roadmap to achieve this.
Conclusion
The nail in the coffin for load shedding in South Africa appears to be within reach. Eskom’s Summer Outlook 2025 highlights structural improvements, restored capacity, cost savings, and steady progress on its generation fleet.
While the nation celebrates the prospect of a future without load shedding, the next challenge lies in eliminating load reduction. Achieving this will require Eskom and its partners to confront electricity theft, upgrade infrastructure, and ensure equitable access to power.
For now, South Africans can cautiously celebrate a brighter, more stable energy future—one where the lights stay on.
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