Highest petrol prices in South Africa’s history coming next month as motorists face the possibility of another major increase in petrol and diesel costs when October 2026 fuel prices are announced.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that fuel prices are currently tracking sharply higher, with significant under-recoveries recorded during the first seven days of September.

The data points to another difficult month for South African motorists, with petrol 93 showing an under-recovery of R1.81 per litre and petrol 95 at R1.93 per litre.

Diesel is also facing substantial pressure. The under-recovery is R1.73 per litre for 0.05% sulphur diesel and R2.03 per litre for 0.005% sulphur diesel.

If these trends continue throughout September, South Africa could enter October with petrol and diesel prices at their highest levels ever.

Petrol prices could reach a new record

The biggest concern is the projected price of petrol 95.

Petrol prices reached a record level in June 2026, when the pump price climbed to R28.06 per litre. That increase followed severe disruptions in global energy markets linked to the Iran conflict and wider concerns about crude oil supplies.

However, the latest CEF figures suggest that the June record could soon be broken.

If the current under-recovery of R1.93 per litre for petrol 95 remains unchanged for the rest of September, the October price could rise to approximately R28.85 per litre.

That would place petrol prices almost R2 per litre above the current June record.

The potential increase is particularly concerning for households that rely heavily on private vehicles for commuting, school transport, shopping and other daily activities.

It could also place additional pressure on businesses that depend on road transportation.

The previous record before 2026 was R26.74 per litre, reached in July 2022 after the global oil market was disrupted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The projected October figure would therefore represent another major milestone in the history of South Africa fuel prices.

Diesel prices face similar pressure

Diesel prices are also heading into October under significant pressure.

The wholesale price of 0.005% diesel is currently R30.05 per litre, according to the figures provided by the CEF data.

This remains below the May 2026 record of R31.88 per litre. However, the current under-recovery of R2.03 per litre means another record could be reached if market conditions remain unchanged.

Based on the current figures, diesel 0.005% could climb to approximately R32.08 per litre in October.

That would be a new record.

Before 2026, the highest diesel price recorded in South Africa was R25.53 per litre in July 2022.

The increase in diesel prices is particularly significant because diesel is widely used by freight companies, agricultural operators, construction businesses and other industries.

Higher diesel costs can therefore affect more than motorists. They can increase transportation and operating costs across the economy, potentially feeding through into the prices consumers pay for goods and services.

October 2026 fuel hike could be severe

The projected October 2026 fuel hike is based on the current under-recoveries and is not yet the final official price.

Fuel prices are determined using several factors, including international petroleum prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate. Conditions can therefore change considerably before the end of September.

Nevertheless, the current numbers provide a warning of what motorists could face.

The latest figures show the following potential increases:

• Petrol 93: R1.81 per litre
• Petrol 95: R1.93 per litre
• Diesel 0.05%: R1.73 per litre
• Diesel 0.005%: R2.03 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: R2.08 per litre

For petrol 95, the current trajectory would take the price from R26.92 in September to approximately R28.85 in October.

For wholesale diesel 0.005%, the projected increase would take the price from R30.05 to approximately R32.08.

These figures demonstrate how quickly South Africa fuel prices have changed during 2026.

Central Energy Fund data highlights sharp increases

The Central Energy Fund figures show a dramatic movement in fuel prices during the year.

In March, petrol 95 was R20.30 per litre, while wholesale diesel 0.005% was R18.60.

By April, petrol 95 had increased to R23.36 and diesel to R26.11.

May brought another major increase, with petrol 95 reaching R26.63 and diesel climbing to its then-record level of R31.88.

Petrol reached its 2026 record in June at R28.06, while diesel fell to R29.26.

Prices subsequently declined in July and August before increasing again in September.

The September petrol 95 price stands at R26.92, while wholesale diesel 0.005% is R30.05.

If the October projections materialise, petrol 95 would reach R28.85 and diesel 0.005% would reach R32.08.

Why global oil prices matter

A major factor behind the current fuel-price pressure is the international oil market.

The conflict involving the United States and Iran has created significant uncertainty around global energy supplies, particularly because of concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

The important shipping route is a major pathway for international oil and energy shipments. Any prolonged disruption or threat to shipping through the area can place upward pressure on crude oil prices.

Oil prices had previously moved closer to pre-conflict levels when markets expected tensions to ease. However, renewed instability pushed prices higher again.

According to the information underpinning the latest fuel-price outlook, international oil prices have moved above $99 per barrel, bringing the psychologically important $100 level back into focus.

Regional supply risks have also increased following attacks affecting energy operations near Saudi Arabia’s border with Yemen.

At the same time, the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict adds another layer of uncertainty to global energy markets.

No immediate relief for motorists

For motorists hoping that the situation will improve before October, the latest figures offer little comfort.

The petrol under-recovery would need to fall significantly before the end of September to prevent another record-breaking increase.

According to the current calculations, the petrol under-recovery would need to improve to approximately R1.13 per litre by the end of the month to avoid petrol prices reaching a new record.

That would require an improvement of about 80 cents per litre from the current position.

A stronger rand could provide some relief because South Africa imports petroleum products and crude oil at internationally determined prices. However, currency strength alone may not be enough to completely offset the impact of higher crude oil prices.

The rand is currently around R16 to the US dollar in the figures used for the projection and is helping reduce the domestic fuel-price impact by roughly 15 cents per litre.

YOU MAY LIKE:

September fuel shock: diesel up R3.15, petrol up R1.34

Here is the official petrol price for August

What motorists should expect

The phrase Highest petrol prices in South Africa’s history coming next month reflects the potential outcome if the current market conditions persist.

However, motorists should remember that the October figure remains a projection rather than a final government-announced fuel price.

International oil prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate and other fuel-price factors can change before the end of September.

For now, though, the trajectory remains worrying.

Petrol 95 could approach R29 per litre, while wholesale diesel 0.005% could exceed R32 per litre if the current under-recoveries are carried into October.

The cumulative impact of the year’s increases is also significant. Since March, petrol 95 has recorded a total projected difference of R8.75 per litre when the October projection is included. Diesel 0.005% has a projected cumulative difference of R13.63 per litre over the same period.

For South African households and businesses already dealing with higher living and operating costs, another major fuel increase could add further financial pressure.

The coming weeks will therefore be crucial. If international oil markets stabilise and the rand strengthens, some of the pressure could ease. But if geopolitical tensions continue driving crude oil higher, South Africa could face a new chapter of record Petrol prices and Diesel prices in October.

References from mainstream media

1. IOL – “Record petrol prices predicted for South Africa in October”
   Reports that CEF data is pointing towards record petrol prices in October, with 95 Unleaded potentially approaching R28.92 per litre inland.
   Read the IOL report
2. EWN – “Record high fuel prices predicted for October”
   Covers the latest CEF projections, including a potential R1.80–R2.00 per litre petrol increase and a possible R28.85 price for 95 petrol.
   Read the EWN report
3. TimesLIVE – “Here’s how much more you could pay for petrol and diesel in September”
   Examines CEF under-recoveries and the impact of international petroleum prices and the rand on South African fuel costs.
   Read the TimesLIVE report
4. IOL – “In just one year diesel prices have risen 12 times faster than general inflation”
   Looks at the sharp increase in diesel and petrol prices and explains how higher fuel costs can affect transportation and the wider economy.
   Read the IOL report

Support Independent Journalism with eKayNews! 📰✨

At eKayNews, we are dedicated to bringing you honest, independent, and reliable news. But we can’t do it alone—independent journalism relies on the strength and generosity of its community.

If you value our work, please consider supporting us today! You can help keep us going by choosing a subscription or simply buying us a one-off virtual coffee:

👉 Support us here: ekaynews.co.za/subscribe-form/

You can also support our mission by visiting our main site at www.ekaynews.co.za and following @eKayNews on all social media platforms.

Thank you so much for your incredible generosity and for being part of our journey! 🙏💙