September fuel price increases: What South African drivers need to know
September fuel price increases hit South African motorists as the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data points to significant increases across petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin when the new prices take effect.
The projected increases come after several months of substantial volatility in the South African fuel market, with international crude oil prices remaining elevated amid continued uncertainty in the Middle East.
For motorists already dealing with higher living costs, another sharp increase could put additional pressure on household budgets, transport operators and businesses that depend heavily on road freight.
The latest CEF figures indicate that petrol prices could rise by between 80 cents and 90 cents per litre, while diesel could face increases of more than R2.80 per litre.
However, the final September adjustment will depend on international oil prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate and other factors tracked during the remainder of the month.
September fuel price increase could exceed R1
The expected September fuel price increase could become even larger if the current over-recovery trends continue until the end of August.
Current CEF data points to an increase of approximately 80 cents per litre for 93 Unleaded petrol and around 90 cents for 95 Unleaded.
However, recent movements in the fuel price under-recovery and over-recovery calculations have raised concerns that petrol increases could eventually reach between R1.00 and R1.10 per litre.
That would represent a substantial additional cost for South African motorists.
For someone filling a 50-litre tank, an increase of R1 per litre would add approximately R50 to the cost of a full tank.
An increase of R1.10 would add around R55.
While the exact impact depends on the vehicle and frequency of refuelling, higher petrol prices can quickly translate into increased monthly transport costs.
Petrol prices have been volatile
The latest projections follow a difficult period for motorists.
The price of 95 Unleaded petrol increased from R19.47 per litre in March to R24.71 in August.
The price also reached a much higher level of R27.19 per litre in June before falling during the following months.
Both grades of petrol were reduced by 52 cents per litre at the beginning of August.
However, the expected September fuel price increase could reverse some of those savings.
South Africa petrol prices under pressure
South Africa petrol prices are heavily influenced by international oil prices and the rand’s performance against the US dollar.
Because crude oil is traded internationally in dollars, movements in the exchange rate can have a direct effect on the cost of importing fuel into South Africa.
This means even when global oil prices remain relatively stable, a weaker rand can contribute to higher domestic fuel prices.
Conversely, a stronger rand can help reduce the impact of higher international oil prices.
For September, motorists will therefore be watching both the oil market and currency movements closely.
The final adjustment will only become clearer once the month-end calculations are completed.
Transport costs could rise
Higher petrol prices can affect much more than the cost of filling up a private vehicle.
Businesses that operate delivery vehicles, taxis, company cars and other transport fleets can face higher operating costs.
Those additional costs can eventually be passed on to consumers through higher prices for goods and services.
Commuters may also feel the impact if taxi operators and other transport providers face significantly higher fuel expenses.
This is why monthly fuel price adjustments are closely watched by households and businesses across South Africa.
Diesel price hike could be more severe
The projected diesel price hike is considerably larger than the expected petrol increase.
According to the latest CEF information, 500ppm diesel could increase by approximately R2.85 per litre.
The projected increase for 50ppm diesel is even higher, at around R3.05 per litre.
These figures could rise further if current international market conditions continue until the end of August.
The potential diesel increase is particularly concerning for South Africa’s logistics and freight industries.
Diesel-powered trucks transport a significant amount of goods across the country, meaning a substantial increase in fuel costs can affect the price of transporting products.
Diesel prices already climbed sharply
The wholesale price of diesel rose from approximately R17.70 per litre in March to R25.30 in August.
The price reached a peak of around R30.30 in May during the period of extreme international oil market volatility.
The latest projections therefore come after an already significant increase in diesel costs.
For truck operators, farmers, construction companies and other diesel-intensive businesses, another increase could have a substantial impact on operating expenses.
Central Energy Fund tracks the market
The Central Energy Fund plays an important role in monitoring South Africa’s fuel price movements.
CEF’s daily data provides an indication of whether the country’s regulated fuel prices are currently experiencing an over-recovery or under-recovery.
An over-recovery generally indicates that market conditions are supporting a potential reduction in domestic fuel prices, while an under-recovery points towards upward pressure.
However, the daily figures are not the final fuel price.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy announces the official monthly adjustment after considering the relevant fuel price calculations.
This means motorists should treat the current CEF figures as an indication rather than a confirmed September price.
Brent crude oil remains a major factor
Brent crude oil remains one of the most important international indicators for South Africa’s fuel price outlook.
Global oil markets have experienced significant volatility following the escalation of the conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz has also remained a major concern because of its importance to global oil transportation.
During August, Brent crude oil was trading mostly around the $90-per-barrel level.
That was significantly lower than the highs of approximately $126 recorded earlier in the year but still above pre-conflict levels of around $70.
The continued uncertainty surrounding oil supplies means international crude prices can change rapidly.
Oil forecasts offer some relief
Despite the current pressure, some analysts expect international oil prices to gradually decline.
JP Morgan has reportedly projected an average Brent crude price of approximately $86 per barrel during the third quarter.
Its forecast then falls to around $80 in the fourth quarter and approximately $78 in 2027.
If such a decline materialises, it could eventually provide some relief for South African motorists.
However, domestic fuel prices will also depend on the rand-dollar exchange rate and other elements included in the country’s fuel pricing formula.
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What motorists should expect in September
September fuel price increases hit South African motorists at a time when household budgets are already under pressure.
The latest CEF indicators suggest petrol could increase by roughly 80 to 90 cents per litre, although the increase could move above R1 if current market conditions persist.
Diesel faces an even more severe outlook, with potential increases of approximately R2.85 to R3.05 per litre.
Illuminating paraffin could also increase by around R2.23 per litre, creating additional pressure for households that rely on the fuel for heating and cooking.
Motorists should therefore continue monitoring the CEF data and await the official government announcement before making assumptions about the final prices.
The September adjustment will ultimately depend on how international oil prices and the rand perform before the calculation period closes.
For now, the outlook remains challenging.
The combination of elevated Brent crude oil prices, currency movements and geopolitical uncertainty means South African motorists could face another expensive month at the pumps.
The key question is whether international oil prices will soften enough to reduce the pressure before the final September fuel prices are announced.
